Mrs. Packletide’s Tiger

“She killed a tiger in Africa!” - while the whole town talked about Mrs. Loona Bimberton’s tiger hunt, Mrs Packletide could not contain her jealousy anymore.  

She too wanted to kill a tiger and be talk of the town. This only thought occupied her mind day and night.

Then one day she had an idea.

She would arrange for a lunch invitation in honor of Mrs. Loona Bimberton where she would show off a tiger skin to tell the guests that she had hunted it down.

And so the tiger hunting started.

Mrs. Packletide offered a high ransom to the villagers to find her a tiger that could be hunted easily.

So the villagers started looking. They finally found an ideal tiger who was very old and weak and was easy to trap.

Children in the village were asked to guard the tiger so that it could not escape.

Then a goat was placed near it as bait. A convenient platform was constructed in a nearby tree from where Mrs. Packletide could easily shoot the tiger.

Mothers in the village alerted their children not to make any noise so as not to wake Mrs. Packletide’s sleeping tiger.

On the following day Mrs. Packletide went with her maid, Ms. Mebbin, to kill the tiger as planned. 

When the goat was placed near the tiger, it started screaming and the poor old tiger was so weak that it could not even find the strength to attack.

The maid said, “Mrs. Packletide, why are you paying so much for such an old worn out tiger? See this tiger cannot even eat that goat! Why would you even pay for the goat?”

She couldn’t finish her sentence when a deafening sound came out of Mrs. Packletide’s gun. 

The tiger died on spot. 

The villagers started screaming with joy, “Mrs. Packletide has killed a tiger! Mrs. Packletide has killed a tiger!”

But her maid noticed that the gun did not even hit the tiger. It shot the goat instead.

But why did the tiger die?

Heart attack! The sound of the gunshot caused a heart attack in the tiger.  

But that did not bother Mrs. Packletide. The tiger skin was all she needed and she got what she came for.

Next day the newspapers were full of Mrs. Packletide’s news. Soon Mrs. Loona Bimberton’s fame faded as Mrs. Packeltide became the talk of town.

The villagers were paid a high ransom and they were happy as well.

 

Do you remember this story from Communicative English class in grade 10?

So, why did we tell the story here? Let us discuss it now.

 

Why the coronavirus calculation is so complex?

Let us have a look at today’s update.

1,163,30 people infected, 53,238 people died and 37,654 people are at terminal condition. (3^rd April, 2020, 6GMT, worldometers.info)

The number that we see regarding coronavirus is actually a very complex calculation.

Because it is not yet certain if all of them are infected. That is, all these people are not really infected but are suspected to be infected. This includes people who have not shown symptoms as well as those who have already recovered. [CCDC, China, Feb 17, 2020]

 

Age distribution and death rate

Now let us have a look at the age distribution of the people who have died from coronavirus (WHO-China Joint Mission Report, Feb 28, 2020)

 

 

Age	Death rate (coronavirus, certain cases)	Death rate (coronavirus, certain and uncertain cases))
80 and above	21.9%	14.8%
70-79		8.0%
60-69		3.6%
50-59		1.3%
40-49		0.4%
30-39		0.2%
20-29		0.2%
10-19		0.2%
0-9		none

 

No children died

The survey that China carried out among 72 thousand and 314 people says that no children under age nine died from coronavirus.

 

 

Most of the people who died are the very old. Also, the death rate decreased with age rate.

According to a research by London Imperial College, the death rate of people among 80 years old is ten times more than the 40 years olds.

 

How much previous illness matter

Now let us look at the condition of patients who had been suffering from other illnesses as well.

The percentages of people who died and had previous illness as observed in the survey of China’s CCDCR are shown below:

 

Previous Illness	Death rate (corona infected, certain cases)	Death rate (corona infected, certain &uncertain cases)
Heart disease	13.2%	10.5%
Diabetes	9.2%	7.3%
Lung problem	8%	6.3%
High Blood Pressure	8.4%	6%
Cancer	7.6%	5.6%
No previous illness		0.9%

 

Which means, previous illnesses increase the risk of death a lot more.

Why so?

 

Coronavirus mainly attacks the immune system

Because it is the immune system that the coronavirus attack on.

A biologist from MIT, Dr. Shiva, has said that, “Virus itself does not cause any damage or death.

What virus actually does is attack on the weak immune system. When immune system fails to tackle the virus, the human body fails as well. All its cell, tissue, organs start to fail, leading the patient’s body in to terminal condition which eventually causes death”.

Dr. Shiva also added, “ The reason for weakened immune system are mainly – obesity, diabetes, heart diseases and smoking.”

That is, the presence of these conditions makes a body much more vulnerable to any kinds of viral or any other attacks.

 

Six kinds of corona viruses existed previously

Is it the first time that the world is being attacked by coronavirus?  

As World Health Organization declared it on their website -

 “Coronaviruses (CoV) are a large family of viruses that cause illness ranging from the common cold to more severe diseases such as Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS-CoV) and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS-CoV). A novel coronavirus (nCoV) is a new strain that has not been previously identified in humans.”

That is, coronavirus is a “large family of virus” which can cause seasonal flu and also complex diseases such as MARS or SARS. NCOV or Novel Coronavirus is the latest version of this virus which has been identified for the very first time.

 

The other 4 corona viruses are very common

Actually there are six more types of coronavirus we know of which had previously spread among humans. Except for the SARS or MARS, the rest of the four viruses are very common.

People get infected by these throughout the year and catch cold, cough, runny nose etc. They cure from it easily as well.

 

3crore were infected in USA alone

From 2018-19, 3 crore people were infected by seasonal flu in USA alone. Among them, 5lakh were hospitalized and 34 thousand died. (Center for Disease Control & Prevention)

If this is the condition of one country, then what is the condition worldwide?

Of course the number is much higher worldwide.

From 2 lakh and 90 thousand to 6lakh and 64thousand people die from flu related illnesses every year. [MedicineNet]

As we mentioned above, most of these deaths occur among people who are very old or those have already been suffering from previous illnesses or active smokers - that is, the people whose immune system were already weakened.

 

The reason for death was another illness

A 18 year old teenager died after testing positive for Coronavirus in UK. The hospital announced that although he tested positive for coronavirus, the reason for his death was another illness.

Thus, when people suffering from previous illnesses who also tested positive coronavirus are dying, it is not being made clear whether they are actually dying due to coronavirus or did coronavirus only worsened their already terminal condition due to other illnesses.  

 

Elon Musk says, “The Coronavirus panic is dumb”

When people who would die regardless of corona are being included in the report, it is obvious that the crisis seem ever more severe than it is in real life!

Hence specialists including D. Shiva are advising people to boost their immune system instead of suffering from coronapanic.

Elon musk, the founder of Tesla and SpaceX have also said the same -

 “Danger of panic still far exceeds danger of corona imo. If we over-allocate medical resources to corona, it will come at expense of treating other illnesses…”

 

Now here are some good news about coronavirus to  make you relieved –

 

Corona in old age does not guarantee death 

While it is true that aged people do suffer more from this virus but it is not due to their age but their health condition. If a person who is 60/65/70 years old is healthy and fit with a good condtion of  immune system, then s/he has nothing to worry about. [Dr D Nageshwar Reddy]

 

95% people suffer at mild level

As we have seen in previous data that only 5% of the infected people suffer at terminal level. People who are healthy belong to the 95% who cures from it. They show mild level symptoms or even none at all.

 

Bangladesh is much less affected

Compared to the other countries (South Korea, Italy, USA), the spread of coronavirus is much less in our country.

On 8^th march Coronavirus spread was officially declared. Afterwards, 61 people got infected in 27 days, among whom 6 died.

Whereas in South Korea, two thousand people were infected within the first month. In Italy it crossed thousands.

Although it is being claimed that the number is so less in Bangladesh is due to the lack of testing kits, specialist are giving a scientific explanation for it .

 

The gene trait of a nation determine its impact

It has been claimed that the gene trait of a nation determine the level of impact on its people. For example, the same virus that attacks Chinese does not attack Africans.

Also, the case of Zika.

This virus exists in many countries. But it is only in Brazil where it causes “Microcephaly” among pregnant women who give birth to children whose head size are smaller than average.

 

The virus did not enter Bangladesh directly from Wuhan

Coronavirus did not enter Bangladesh from Wuhan but from Italy. That is, the virus first traveled from Wuhan to the West and then from the West to Bangladesh. In between there is a gap of several weeks.

During this gap and transfer, the virus also went through some transformation through genome sequencing. As a result, the virus became less severe and less damaging.

This could be the reason why the virus is spreading so slowly in our high populated country.

Although it cannot be said for 100% sure until further researches are conducted, but it is certain that the virus went through a genotype transformation.

 

 

COVID 19 cannot survive as much in high temperature and humidity

The previous corona viruses had spread mostly in winter time. It is also being suspected that COVID19 can thrive in cold dry weather much more.

Although it cannot be claimed for certain yet but computer modeling has shown that COVID 19 has lower survival chance in high temperature and humidity.

 

Just as cooked meat create layer of fat when cooled

A member of coronavirus family is called the “enveloped virus” which is coated with a fatty layer of protein, known as the lipid bilayer.

Due to this coating, the virus weakens in hotter region.

But when the climate is colder, the virus becomes stronger.

It is the same as when cooked meat create layer of fat when cooled.

Thus, as the outdoor temperature rises, the coronavirus affects less and less.

 

China is lifting its restrictions

Coronavirus had first started spreading from China. Wuhan was locked down for two months. From 2^nd April, Wuhan had partially lifted its lockdown and from 8^th April entirely.

China does not have any affected cases anymore. Those who are affected now have brought it from abroad.

As a result, China is lifting up its lockdown and other restrictions now.

 

Situations are taking a turn in Italy and Spain

Spain and Italy will probably be the highest affected countries. From then onwards, we can hope that this spread will start decreasing